Who will win Afcon 2012?

By Segun Odegbam:The title of this article is a repetition of the one I wrote when the African Cup of Nations was about to kick off some weeks ago. I had gazed into my Afcon 2012 crystal ball and proclaimed what I saw – a ‘dream final’ between Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire. I believed it then. but as the curtains of the championship are being drawn this weekend in Libreville, Gabon, let me admit that, until the matches of last Wednesday night were concluded, I assumed I was right on target with almost all of my pre-Afcon analysis and predictions. Unfortunately, I was caught out by one moment of brilliance, a moment of pure magic. Substitute Zambian forward, Emmanuel Mayuka, received a pass with his back against the Ghanaian goal with hardly any room to do anything with the ball in this tightly packed Ghanaian defence that had been impregnable all night. As he controlled the ball he feinted to go in one direction but swivelled on his heel and moved in the other, and, in one fluid movement, struck the ball with the inside of his right foot in a parabolic 'banana' kick that swerved and curved beyond the reach of the Ghanaian goalkeeper, struck the inside of the upright and nestled into the far corner of goal. It was a totally unexpected but beautiful goal that turned my prediction upside down and me into a 'false' prophet! My 'dream final' had turned into a nightmare for Ghanaians all over Africa, and into a celebration for 12 million Zambians, such as has not been seen since 1994, when a hurriedly assembled Chipolopolo put the trauma of losing their national team members (except for Kalusha Bwalya, who was not on the flight) in a tragic air crash behind them, played like people possessed, got to the finals of that year's Nations Cup in Tunisia and put up what many have described as one of the best final matches in the history of the championship. Inspired by the great Kalusha himself they still failed at the last – the Nigerian Super Eagles of 1994. Sympathy for the Zambian team of 1994 apart, it would have been most cruel to the game of football if the star-studded Super Eagles had lost to them. Once again, looking ahead to the match against co-finalists Ivory Coast, a team loaded to the hilt with a collection of the best African players in Europe at present, one can feel for Zambia that they have done exceedingly well coming this far in the championship but that they may also have reached their end. In short, beating Ghana may be Zambia's trophy because, unlike Ghana, the rampaging frontline of Ivory Coast may tear Zambia's defence to pieces. In the other semifinal match between Mali and Ivory Coast, Mali could have been routed by at least three goals in the first 30 minutes but for the fact that luck deserted the Ivorians. They hit the crossbar and the upright two times and blew away a few clear chances in front of the Malian goal. True, Zambia are not Mali and their defence line is better organised but the style of play of southern African teams, of which Zambia are an exponent, fits the style of the best West African teams. More often than not (check the records for confirmation) Zambia will always play well against teams like Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon and Ivory Coast but will hardly ever win. It is a matter of style. The import of this is that Zambia's defeat of Ghana was an upset. Under normal circumstances of playing styles Ghana should have won. Even though most analysts agreed they were a dangerous opponent and had played some of the best football up till that match, very few actually thought Zambia would defeat the Black Stars. Ghana had too much individual talent, were higher ranked in the world, looked more mature and well organised and were from West Africa! That’s why Zambia's qualification for the final this time around should be celebrated on its own. Celebrations should not be suspended until the end of the final match as it is unlikely that there will be another upset. The pre-tournament favourites still hold the aces. I believe the final match will be a classic, something to behold. The contrasting styles of the two teams will make for a great football spectacle outside of whatever the result may be. This match would make an excellent case study for students of football. That’s the treat that awaits the world this weekend. So, who will win Afcon 2012? Crystal ball or not, my bet is still on the Elephants.